On Friday the European Commission put a draconian round of what it euphemistically calls “restrictive measures” against Russia up for approval by EU member nations. The measures are intended to inflict damage. They will be interpreted by the Kremlin as belligerent, and they are likely to be approved.
It is difficult to see how the Kremlin can back down. And if the EU launches sufficiently crippling measures, it is difficult to see what the Kremlin loses by taking the next step and openly occupying a non-NATO country on its border.
Perhaps a number of western governments will actually welcome this as an opportunity to make the “restrictive measures” permanent. So much for the reset.
While we were patting ourselves on the back for our forays into Eastern Europe in the mid-2000s, in the name of democracy, many Russians were probably remembering the 600,000 Red Army soldiers lost defending Kiev from Hitler’s invasion, and sourly noting that Ukraine only came into existence as a state with the fall of the Soviet Union. Others were undoubtedly chafing over obstructionism against the ambitious South Stream pipeline project on the part of influential members of the EU.
Which is not to defend Vladimir Putin. It is only to point out that the momentum building toward disaster in Eastern Europe is not the consequence of a single man. We might have hoped for a Russian leader who would have found a way to stifle Russian ambitions and muffle grievances, a kind of Slavic Mahmoud Abbas, but we can hardly complain that they picked one who speaks their own cultural language.
Maybe this is all inevitable. If so, if this is the best that can be done, then one shudders at the eventual collision between the West and China.